TDH Blog Entries

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/21

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NBA

My philosophy is, and will always be… the best ability is profitability. 

We came SO close to a perfect night last night. Despite the small slate, we were able to make the right tails, pair them nicely, and walk away with a pair of wins. 

Even my own picks went 1/2 while sniffing a chance to push us to an undefeated evening. 

Nevertheless, we finished with a profitable night and have the chance to grow the bankroll with a plethora of Taco Tuesday promotions headed our way. 

Tonight, we’re switching things up as PrizePicks has so graciously dropped its first baseball taco on us for the World Baseball Classic championship game between the United State and Japan. 

For this play, we’re basically trusting three reliable workhorses that have continued to get on base and score runs this spring, whether it’s the WBC or a traditional Spring Training game. 

The Taco play is world phenom Shohei Ohtani o0.5 total bases. You hate to say there’s a freebie on the board… but this very well may be one.  

Ohtani has put together an absolutely INSANE World Baseball Classic. reaching base and hitting safely in all six of Team Japan’s games. Ohtani has recorded nine hits, nine walks, and scored nine runs in six games of action. All we need him to do tonight is stay the course and reach base ONE time. 

(And although Ohtani was a Taco play at o0.5 bases, I’d still take him at o1.5 bases with this track record of getting on base multiple times in multiple games.)

Along with the Taco, we’re going to play Mike Trout o1.5 bases with Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 bases.

Both Trout and Goldy have reached base in all five WBC games. Goldy and Trout have hit safely in 4/5 games, giving us consistent play of reaching base via hit. Goldy has gone deep, hit a double in another game and recorded two singles in another. Trout on the other hand has just one multi-hit game, but he did homer once, giving us o1.5 total bases in 2/5 games, compared to Goldy’s 3/5.

Although these aren’t clear cut indicators of a cash tonight, laying trust in the hands of the reigning N.L. MVP and a multi-A.L. MVP feels like an extremely sane and safe play to make. After all, this is for all the marbles. A chance to bring home a championship to your country. It’s hard to imagine either guy having a hard time getting up for a game like this.

In total, Goldschmidt has compiled six runs on six walks and five hits while Trout has recorded six hits, five walks, and four runs. To summarize… these guys are on-base MACHINES.

For our regularly programmed entertainment, we will be sticking to our normal routine of trying to pair tails with original plays and ending up on top. 

Last night we Trusted the Data, and Steven Cheah delivered with an all-time miracle cover as Stephen Curry hit a final-minute, meaningless three-point basket to cash the o4.5 3PT prop that we paired with Calling Our Shot’s R.J. Barrett u19.5 points play. 

Tonight, we’re tailing our guys again. And we’re also pairing a tail with a personal play. If I’ve learned anything in the game of PrizePicks, it’s this: You can have three good props, and three official plays, but if you can’t find a winning pair, you’re as good as broke. 

My initial plans were to take Nets shooting guard Mikal Bridges o24.5 points, a COS pick, but since it’s Taco Tuesday at PrizePicks, we’re getting Bridges down to 20.5 points, a mark too low not to take. He’s been a Taco the last two Tuesdays and cashed both times. So, back to the well we go.

And although I had plans to take one of my personal picks with Bridges, I wanted to get in on Cheah’s Jayson Tatum o5 assists prop, so we’re pairing these two together for $25. 

Cheah got Tatum at o4.5, but I couldn’t get that mark. Luckily, Tatum has recorded at least six or more assists in 6/L8 road games and 8/L12 overall. So I feel comfortable taking this at an even 5. 

ATLANTA HAWKS vs. DETROIT PISTONS

For my own personal play of the night, I’m going to back Trae Young at home against the Detroit Pistons. Now, I’m not sure if I’ll actually play this one on PrizePicks, I’m torn due to the possibility of a blowout, and in that case, I could fade my idea, so it may be a game-time decision. Regardless, I’m targeting Young’s Pts/Asts prop of 40.5. 

He’s cleared this mark in both road contests against Detroit, finishing with 41 and 48. At home, Young came up just short, finishing with 39 in 31 minutes of action in a 25-point blowout (130-105). 

Now that I’ve written this all out, my plan is to say fuck it and take the o40.5 Pts/Asts. Young is coming off one of his worst performances of the season, scoring just nine points and dishing out six assists in a 126-118 road loss at San Antonio. 

We’re going to bank on Trae to come out wheeling and dealing tonight at home. 

BOSTON CELTICS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS

Because we’ve got a WBC play and an NBA pair already set, I’m going to pair Trae Young’s o40.5 Pts/Asts prop with another tail, this time from the Prop Bet Guy at Action Network. This guy gave out the sneaky good Nick Richards play last night, and he makes a lot of good points for taking Jaylen Brown o26.5 points at Sacramento tonight.

The Kings play some of the worst defense, and we’re already on Tatum to facilitate, so let’s pair them together and see if we can’t nail both. This should be a high-scoring contest, so even if Tatum gets his, I’m sure the pair will be sharing the rock. 

So, this is what we got as of about 4:00 P.M. EST. Due to the possibility of 1-2 enticing Taco Tuesday plays dropping between now and tonight, I may throw together one more play. If so, I’ll try to add it below.

Let’s see if we can’t go back-to-back profitable nights!

The Cardinals Would Be Downright SILLY to Keep Jordan Walker in Triple-A

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in MLB

The 2023 Major League Baseball season is right around the corner and I could not be more excited. The St. Louis Cardinals have as much hype and upside as they’ve had in years coming off a solid 2022 regular season and an underwhelming postseason sweep. 

The Cardinals enter 2023 with a STACKED lineup with the potential to have one of the most lethal batting orders in the MLB.

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt is coming off arguably the best season of his career, earning NL MVP honors, and third baseman Nolan Arenado enters the year following a third-place finish in MVP voting while also earning his 10th consecutive Rawling Gold Glove award.

Despite the loss of future Hall of Famers Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols, the Cards still have a lot to look forward to this season. 

Guys Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar are poised for breakout seasons while middle infielders Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan (first-time Gold Glove recipient), and Nolan Gorman provide the best defensive protection in the National League. Pairing these likes with corner infield defenders like Goldy and Nolan basically solidifies the Redbirds as the best defensive team in the MLB.

Now if I wasn’t tooting our horn enough, may I interest you in some of the most exciting young talents the majors have to offer?

20-year-old phenom and MLB top-prospect Jordan Walker has done a little bit of everything this spring to ensure he finds his way onto the Cardinals Opening Day roster. And if the fans had any say, he’s almost certainly locked up a spot in the Opening Day lineup. 

Now, is this an over-exaggeration? One could make that argument. But there is no denying Walker is ready to face big-league arms this season. 

This spring, Walker has pummeled opposing pitchers, batting .340 with three home runs and nine RBIs while notching an impressive .956 OPS. The young star’s strikeout rate is still a bit high with 10 SOs in 53 at-bats, but to say these stats aren’t promising would be a flat-out lie.

And Walker has impressed more than just the STL faithful, The Athletics’ Keith Law has Walker ranked as the No. 5 prospect heading into 2023, moving up 25 spots from No. 30 last season. 

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel is also high on the newly transitioned outfielder, ranking Walker No. 14 in his annual top-100 MLB prospect rankings. \

In addition to the hype around Walker, the Cardinals also fins themselves with a plethora of middle infield talent heading into 2023.

20-year-old Masyn Winn has also turned heads and impressed in Cardinals camp this spring.

Winn is a former pitcher-turned-shortstop that can hurl the ball across the diamond at 99 MPH while also raking like a .300 hitter at the plate.

In 40 plate appearances this spring, Winn is batting .325 with a .906 OPS, driving in nine RBIs with two homes runs and one triple.

Winn and Walker each have put together convincing Arizona Fall League and Spring Training campaigns, making the decision on where to assign them come next week harder by the day.

It still remains to be seen whether Walker will get the Opening Day roster, or even lineup, nod, but fans and baseball enthusiasts are much more optimistic now, than say 30 days ago. 

The struggles of Tyler O’Neill in 2022 and this spring (2-14) have placed second-year skipper Oli Marmol in a tight spot as he and his staff contemplate which players to go with on Opening Day against Toronto. 

Could we see Walker in right field, Carlson in center and Nootbaar in left? Or possibly Noot in center, Carlson in left or a combination of Walker/O’Neill in right? Only time will tell. 

But if we’re sure about one thing as of this moment, its this. 

Baseball is back. 

And I’m fired the fuck up. 

Let’s Go Birds.

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/20

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NBA

It’s been a few weeks, but I’m back today with a few NBA props for tonight’s Monday night slate.

While I was away, I continued to make plays, sometimes combining tails from Twitter with my own research, and other times going out on a limb and seeing if I couldn’t rattle off a quick winner. Regardless of the recipe I’ve used, I’ve continued to see positive results since I started playing on Prize Picks just three weeks ago.

During this short span, I’ve won nearly 1k in wins while cashing out just over $350 with $210 to play with at the start of today.

At the time of putting this blog together, I have already locked in one 2-leg play for $25. This one is courtesy of Calling Our Shot and Barstool’s Steven Cheah (Trust the Data). Thanks to Austin at COS’s track record as well as the undeniable strength of Cheah’s data, we’ve put together a strong play with Curry o4.5 made 3’s and R.J. Barrett u19.5 points. Curry has seen an insane shooting volume against a Houston team that ranks the worst in opposing team’s 3 PT shooting %. I’m not going to lie, this play worries me slightly, but I’m trusting the data, it’s all you can do. As for the Barrett play, I was more than eager to ride this wagon as Barrett has underwhelmed for me in the points and rebounds department this season, so tailing an under just felt right.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. NEW YORK KNICKS

For my own official plays, we’ll start with my favorite, which is Jalen Brunson o24.5 points at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Brunson is coming off a 24-point performance against the Denver Nuggets in his first game back from injury. In this game, Brunson shot 9-20 from the field including 2-5 from 3PT range in 32 minutes of action.

Tonight, we see Jalen in an incredibly favorable matchup against a poor defensive Timberwolves unit. Minnesota has not fared well against opposing point guards recently, giving up 28 points in their last game to Fred Van Vleet as well as an 88-point scoring combination from Demar Derozan and Zach Lavine in a double OT loss to Chicago. Jaylen Brown went for 35 points against MIN on 03/15 and Trae Young dropped a whopping 41 points in a 136-115 ATL home loss on 03/13.

Now I know a few of these scorers are shooting guards, but the point stands. Minnesota isn’t keen to playing defense on the perimeter. Brunson should have no problem exploiting this defense at home against another solid MSG crowd.

*Disclaimer – I fucked up and didn’t get my play in before Brunson’s line rose. Alas, I still feel comfortable with this one at 25 points even.

CHICAGO BULLS vs. PHILADEPLHIA 76ERS

My second play, and the one I have paired with Brunson’s o25 points, is James Harden o10.5 assists at home against the Chicago Bulls. Harden has hit this line in both of his matchups with Chicago this season (avg. 11 Asts) while also hitting this mark in 4/L8 overall games and 4/L8 home games.

This play is a bit dicey, as Harden often blows this prop out of the water or just narrowly misses it, but we’re banking on the Bulls to keep this game close. Chicago enters Monday night’s matchup with Philly coming off back-to-back win while sitting just 3.5 games back of the 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with just over 10 games to play. To tack on one last Harden stat, he’s only hit his points prop over in 2/L7 home games, so let’s bank on a night of facilitating the ball and finding the open man.

This is all I have at the moment. I’d like to find maybe one more angle to exploit before the games get going this evening, but it’s a small slate, so I may just hold off. If there are any last-minute plays, they’ll be added below before the 7 P.M. EST slate tips off.

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props 03/03

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NBA

I think Mike Breen said it best… BANG! BANG! BANG!!!

Not only do we remain profitable, we cashed a $100 dub, thanks to Mr. Dub himself, Klay Thompson.

After sweating through Kyrie’s final assist in crunch time following a quick three assists in the third quarter, we managed to cash Klay Thompson’s PAR o32.5 in the 3Q!

Thompson continued his hot streak, finishing with a 19 PTS, 11 REB and 4 AST performance in a 115-91 Warriors victory. Thankfully, Klay was able to pull down plenty of boards in the third quarter to help us cash before he sat out the fourth in a rout.

I stayed up a little too late watching the final game unfold, but I wouldn’t have it any other way when we’re cashing tickets!

Now of course, with the win comes the losses.

We went 1 for 2 on a last second play in which Tyrese Maxey picked up where he left off against Miami, clearing his PAR with ease, finishing with 29 points, 2 boards and 2 assists in the Sixers’ 133-126 loss at Dallas.

While Maxey handled business, Kawhi Leonard just couldn’t get any help from his teammates as he finished with an underwhelming goose egg (0) in the assist column. I tailed this play from Twitter, and I stand by it. 

With the increased pace of the Clippers since Westbrook’s arrival, paired with an opponent like Golden State, there ended up being plenty of assists opportunities, shots just didn’t fall. Oh well!

In our final play of the night, we tailed a Steven Cheah pick with Pascal Siakam’s o22.5 points, paired with Bradley Beal’s o22.5 points. With the Wizards facing Toronto, we unfortunately saw both players fall short. I had a hunch in Kuzma’s points, but stayed away. Whoops!

You can bet your bottom dollar we’ll be tailing Cheah again today. In Cheah We Trust.

Now that we’ve recapped, let’s dive into a few plays for another fun slate in the National Basketball Association’s Thursday night action.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ DENVER NUGGETS

I don’t necessarily love backing a Grizzlies player on the road given their abysmal 12-18 record away from FedEx Forum, but I did find a nice little trend we can latch onto.

Desmond Bane is coming off a 6-9 3-PT shooting night on Tuesday night at Houston. His three made line is set at o/u 2.5 made threes. Bane has hit this mark in 5 of his L6 road games and 5 of his L10 overall. 

I’m not in love with this play, but I’m willing to ride his hot shooting in Houston into a pivotal matchup between the 1 and 2 seeds in the Western Conference.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are looking to avenge last Saturday’s road loss to Memphis, this time at home.

Jokic’s AST prop is set at 10 even on Prize Picks. This pick is a bit dicey, but there’s data to back us up in taking this play.

Jokic has hit at least 10 assists in 8 of his L11 games, including 11 of his L13 home games dating back to Jan. 5th.

The only downside to taking this prop is the chance of Jokic stopping at 10 even, leading to a push.

In the 11 hits at home, Jokic has failed to go higher than 10 assists. Even with this knowledge, it still seems like a fair play to take him o10 ASTS in a battle against the 2 seeded Grizzlies. 

I’m going to pair these two plays with Ja Morant’s points and hope for the best. This feels like a good spot to back Ja against a stout Western Conference opponent.

In addition to this play, I’m also playing the twofer below. These picks are strictly Twitter tails, so do what you will with that information

That’s all I got for tonight, I haven’t had a proper chance to dive into all the teams in action. I’ll likely pair some tailing picks together with maybe one new hunch to see if I can’t add another W to the win column. 

There’s a solid slate of games again tomorrow night, and I plan on diving head first into some research once I get back from Orlando.

Until then, let’s remain profitable and keep increasing that bankroll. 

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props (03/02)

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NBA

The most important thing for me after placing 2-3 plays is one thing: Remaining Profitable.

And if we can’t do that, let’s at least limit the damage to $20-$40 at the worst.

Now of course there comes the times when I get a little carried away and confident, and disaster strikes. And although I did add a last second play last night, it ended up being the winner we needed to stay profitable for the evening.

We picked up a win with a last second two-leg play that saw Donovan Mitchell absolutely CRUSH his Pts prop of 25.5 with a 44 point performance.

We paired Mitchell with Marvin Bagley III, and although he started off slow, we managed to just get over the 8.5 line with nine rebounds to cash a $30 winner. Big S/O to Capper Penguin (@__LordPenguin) for the tip on Bagley.

Unfortunately, we came up a bit short on our other two plays. I felt insanely good about Garland and Butler cashing for us, but a blowout kept us from seeing much of Jimmy down the stretch. Oh well, I still feel like it was the right play.

In the other loss, we took a gamble on a couple of guys and it bit us back. I had a hunch in yesterday’s write up that Brown’s unders might be a solid play, turns out I should’ve taken my own advice. He was cold and slow starting out, but ran out of time by only scoring 16 total points. 

Now that we’ve celebrated the win and dwelled on the losses, let’s see if we can throw together a few more solid picks and remain profitable tonight. 

Disclaimer: I am at Disney World today and tomorrow, so picks will be limited to 3-4 of my favorite picks/leans. I hope to be able to compile upwards of 5-7 a night, depending on the slate. 

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Golden State hosts the Clippers tonight at Chase Center with the winner taking sole possession of the fifth seed in the Western conference.

I love this spot for Klay Thompson to rebound from a poor shooting effort (8-21) against Portland on Tuesday night.

Klay just narrowly hit his o33.5 PAR prop, and tonight that line is set a bit lower at o/u 31.5.

Klay has hit the over on 32.5 PAR in three straight games, all of which have been at home. On top of that, he’s hit this number in 5 of his L7 home games dating back to Feb. 4th. 

Let’s ride the Thompson train again tonight.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS

We’re going back to the well on this pick as well, taking Kyrie Irving to continue his consistent streak of hitting o 5.5 assists. 

Irving has hit this mark in 5 of his 7 games with the Mavs. This includes 3 out of 4 home games.

Irving has recently commented about wanting to succeed and win with Dallas, so I don’t see any reason not to back him in another home performance against a Sixers team on a back-to-back, including three games in four nights.

Along with Kyrie, we’re gonna take Luka Doncic as well. 

He’s hit o 31.5 Pts in 3 of his L5 games, let’s see if he can’t turn it on and help add to Kyrie’s AST total.

That sets us up with a three-leg play that will net $100 if we can cash. In the words of the late, great Takeoff.. Let’s get it.

I’m pressed for time since I’m on vacation today and tomorrow, so my other play for the night, at this moment, is below. I’m tailing some guys I follow on Twitter, so my reasoning for taking these is based solely off of my trust in these guys and their track records. So here goes nothing!

Keith Sweatt’s NBA Props: 03/01

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NBA

I think the best way to preface this new segment is to talk about my newfound love for the Prize Picks app. Being a Florida resident, the betting game is nearly nonexistent for me as the normal Sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and Barstool are all prohibited in the state. So, this basically leaves me with Daily Fantasy Sports apps to scratch the everlasting gambling itch that I get at the ass crack of dawn each morning.

Thanks to my co-worker Sergio, I got into Prize Picks last night, cashing my first two tickets thanks to some tails from a few trusted accounts on Twitter, as well as my own research.

I’ve enjoyed the research side of NBA prop betting so much that I’ve decided the best way to make this time spent studying productive is to share the research, thought process and eventual picks with my extremely niche and small audience. You gotta start somewhere, right?

Now obviously with any new venture, especially in the gambling space, there is going to be the inevitable “beginners’ luck” crowd. And to them I say, “yeah, you’re probably right.” I got bailed out with a HUGE Golden State comeback last night with Klay Thompson just narrowly hitting his PTs/Rebs/Asts line with a final three-minute drive to the rim. But if you think I’m going to apologize for a win, I got some badddddd news for you bucko (fucko).

Along with this two-leg win, I was also able to notch a win with a 2/3 finish in a Flex Play. A very cool feature that Prize Picks offers is the chance to add a little insurance to your plays. Now of course, with insurance comes the costs. I made my first play of the night a Flex Play, meaning even if I went 3/3, I was still taking a pay cut in winnings down to 2.25X instead of 3X. And in the event, I went 2/3, which I did because Klay didn’t hit his Pts prop of o26.5, I ended up with a 1.25X payout, which still netted me a $5 profit, so no harm no foul.

Now enough about last night, lets dive into tonight’s NBA slate. We’ve got some really good matchups with the Cavs visiting the Celtics, the Sixers finishing a Home/Away with the Heat in Miami and the NBA’s version of the “Subway Series” as Brooklyn heads to lower Manhattan to take on the red-hot New York Knicks at MSG.

It’s slightly early in the day as I write this, so there will be plays added to the card as the day progresses. But for now, here are a few props I’m keeping an eye on and looking to possibly play tonight.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ BOSTON CELTICS

Darius Garland is set at o/u 27.5 Pts/Asts @ Boston tonight. He has cleared this mark in 6 of his L10 games, missing the over with 26 and 27 in 2 of the 4 misses, so he’s consistent. He’s cleared o27.5 Pts/Asts in 8 of his L9 road games dating back to Jan. 18th. Cleveland is just 1-4 in its last 4 games but did rattle off seven straight before the All-Star break which included three road wins. 

Evan Mobley is set at o16.5 Pts tonight @ Boston. He has cleared this mark in 7 of his L11 games and has hit at least 17 Pts in 8 of his L11 road games dating back to Jan. 11th. On 10/28 @ Boston, Mobley had 19 and 10, and on 11/02 at home, he had 15 and 7 against them. Robert Williams is back for Boston, but I believe we can trust Mobley and Jarrett Allen to crash the boards and continue to get their own. Williams pulled down just 7 boards in the Celtics’ 109-94 loss to New York on Monday. 

Jaylen Brown is set at o24.5 Pts tonight against CLE. He’s cleared this mark in 11 of his L16 dating back to Jan 1st. including 5/8 home games. If you don’t like that, his Pts/Rebs is o/u 31.5. He’s only cleared his Pts/Rebs mark of 31.5 6 of his L16 and his Pts/Rebs/Asts in 7 of his L16. So there appears to be some value on the under for those two lines if you’d rather go that route. Something to think about. 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ MIAMI HEAT

Jimmy Butler is set at o/u 21.5 Pts tonight at home against PHI. He went for 23 against PHI on the road on Monday night, a game in which he went for 23 Pts, 11 Rebs, and 9 Asts. He’s cleared this scoring mark in 7 of his L10 games including 5/ L9 home games. Miami went just 4-6 in Feb. and currently sits 1.5 back of BKN for the sixth seed in the East. This is another big spot for Butler against his team as he looks to notch back-to-back wins and help Miami climb back up the ranks in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Tonight’s Plays (03/01)

I’m not sure what the structure will look like going forward, but I’d like to keep it close to the same night-in and night-out, but we’ll see.

For now, I’ll share the two plays I’m going with. The first is a three-legger that I earned by winning my first two plays on Prize Picks. Went out on a limb for a couple picks including returning to the well with Mika Bridges. Then, I paired him with Jaylen Brown’s points and anchored it down with my Evan Mobley pick.

For my second play, I kept things short and sweet and played my two favorite picks. Garland and Butler to continue their success. Let’s see if we can’t keep things rolling into Thursday and remain profitable.

Is the Super Bowl Up for Grabs?

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NFL, Picks

The NFL playoffs are among us, and beginning Saturday, 14 teams will vie for the chance to face off under the lights at State Farm Stadium on Feb. 12 in Super Bowl LVII.

There are a variety of scenarios that could lead to an improbable Super Bowl winner. And there are also a few situations where we see much of the same (i.e. Andy Reid leading another team to an SB berth.)

But what fun is the playoffs without rooting for a little bit of mayhem? I

l’ll go ahead and admit my predictions for the MLB playoff race were slightly off (Padres NLDS being my only correct pick), but I believe my experience of living and dying on NFL Sunday bets 18 weeks straight puts me in a solid spot to make a few postseason predictions for the National Football League. So, without a further ado, here’s what ol’ Keith Sweatt has cooked up for opening weekend.

NFC Playoff Predictions

Despite dropping two of their last three regular season matchups, the Philadelphia Eagles snagged the number one seed in the NFC, earning a first-round bye to the divisional round next weekend. The San Francisco 49ers nabbed the #2 seed as the Vikings (#3 seed) stumbled down the stretch and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just barely beat out the flailing NFC South to earn the final division title and #4 seed. The three Wild Card finalists are the Dallas Cowboys (#5), New York Giants (#6) and the Seattle Seahawks at #7 following a crushing Packers loss to the Lions on the final Sunday night contest of the season.

Obviously, with any playoff setting there are the favorites and the underdogs. In this year’s scenario, the Eagles and 49ers (Brock Purdy ain’t fucking around) are the clear top dogs. But even with their prowess comes questions like “how healthy is Jalen Hurts and the Philly offensive line?” and “Can Purdy fuck around and win it all?” Only time will tell, but these questions leave me to believe this could be a really fun opening playoff weekend.

This is a jumbled way of approaching the matchups, but we’ll start with the Monday night primetime meeting between the Cowboys and Buccaneers. We might as well address the elephant in the room, my Cowboys bias. It pains me to say it, but I think we’re a solid team that could be dangerous. This is, of course, me trying to sike myself into believing we actually could put it all together this season. I know all too well that crushing defeat awaits me on Monday night at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, which coincidentally just might be my first NFL/Cowboys game. What could go horrifically wrong?

In all reality, I think the Cowboys offense can be lethal when firing on all cylinders, and the banged-up nature of the Bucs on both sides of the ball might allow us to steal a win in Tampa. So of course, I’m fading Tom Brady’s perfect 9-0 record against my boys and taking Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys 24-16

In the Saturday afternoon matchup between the dangerous San Francisco 49ers and the hobbled but victorious Seattle Seahawks, I think it would be silly to entertain any idea that SF doesn’t walk away with a 10+ point margin of victory. In two meetings this season, the Niners defeated the Seahawks 27-7 in week two at home with Jimmy G and 21-13 in week 15 on the road with Purdy. Geno Smith has no doubt resurrected his career. And Kenneth Walker III is most likely the Offensive Rookie of the Year. But it took Seattle overtime in week 18 against the Baker Mayfield led Rams just to sneak into the playoffs. There’s about a 12% chance they can soar into Levi’s Stadium this weekend and put 20+ on the Niners defense en route to a Wild Card upset. Give me the Niners by double digits.

Pick: 49ers 31-10

The #3 seeded Vikings hosting the #6 Giants at 4:30 on Sunday is undoubtedly the biggest toss-up game on the NFC schedule this weekend. The Giants narrowly defeated Minnesota in week 16 before falling late, 27-24. Now, with the season on the line, the two possibly most fraudulent teams will meet to decide who the bigger phony is. Kirk Cousins vs. Daniel Jones is just about as white as it gets in a QB matchup. And when comparing each side’s defensive output in the final weeks of the regular season, it’s tough to say Minnesota has any kind of edge. Getting dismantled by Rodgers and the Packers can’t help the SKOL Nation confidence heading into this weekend.

So, if it comes down to it, I think I like Jones’ ability to limit turnovers and use his legs when needed over Kirk Cousins in a big-time spot. I can see this game going a plethora of ways. From a New York beatdown to a Minnesota OT victory. But I’m going to ride my gut and say I think the Giants get their revenge. Give me Daboll and the NFC Beast G-Men to ride into the divisional round.

Pick: Giants 31-27

AFC Playoff Predictions

The Kansas City Chiefs secured another #1 seed in the AFC, earning a first-round bye while the likes of Buffalo, Cincinatti and Jacksonville will fight to stay alive in the Wild Card round. And while there’s surely some star-studded talent headlining the divisional winners, it may not be smart to count out a Wild Card winner like the Chargers.

The #2 seed Bills will play host to the reeling #7 seeded Miami Dolphins on Sunday at 1 p.m. This will be Miami’s first trip to the playoff since 2016, and a first-round exit is almost certain. Miami will enter Wild Card weekend with third string QB Skylar Thompson at the helm as Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater each remain sidelined with injuries. The Bills will use this weekend as a tune up game to prepare for more lethal opponents in the coming weeks. It may be so bad that I won’t be surprised if we see Case Keenum taking snaps towards the end of the third quarter.

PICK: Bills By a ZILLION (34-12)

In the Sunday night cap, the AFC North champion Cincinatti Bengals will welcome the injury riddled Baltimore Ravens to town. It appears former MVP Lamar Jackson’s timetable to return to the gridiron is still in question, and backup Tyler Huntley’s status is also up in the air. This leaves Anthony Brown as the possible Wild Card weekend starter. If this is the case, the NFL may have to start paying fans to tune in. Even with Huntley at the helm, I expect Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson to have a field day while Burrow and the boys take care of business. Give me Joe Brrrrrr and the Bengals by double digits.

PICK: Bengals 27-10

The Jacksonville Jaguars will host their first playoff game since 2017 on Saturday night as the wild card winning Los Angeles Chargers look to crash the party and secure the “upset” win. The Chargers may have dropped their season finale to Russ and the Broncos, but LA is still a team to be reckoned with.

Justin Herbert has continuously picked up the pieces and made something out of nothing this season, and with the return of a healthy Keenan Allen and slightly “back” Joey Bosa, the Chargers should have more than enough manpower to test the Jags. After all, this is a Jacksonville team, that while hot, still nearly coughed up a playoff spot by allowing Joshua Dobbs to keep within striking distance down until the final whistle. It’s not lost on me that Jacksonville dealt LA a beatdown in week three, defeating the lowly Chargers 38-10 at SoFi Stadium, but these are two different teams, and this is the damn playoffs. This should undoubtedly be one of the best games of the weekend. And I’m going to go against the Cinderella team and back Herbert and LA in a nail-biter.

PICK: Chargers 23-17

The NFC BEAST is the Best Division in Football

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in NFL

The BEAST is back.

And it’s not even up for debate.

The NFC East has compiled the best record of any division in the NFL through week 7 as the Eagles remain the only undefeated team at 6-0, the Giants are winners of four straight and sit at 6-1 and the Cowboys got back in the win column, taking down Detroit 24-6 to move to 5-2.

Hell, even the lowly Washington Commanders are good for 3-4 following an upset win over Green Bay in Landover, Maryland, on Sunday afternoon. That 3-4 record is good enough for a first-place tie in the South, second place in the North and a tie for third in the West.

With this level of success occurring almost overnight for a common laughingstock division like the NFC East, many experts and spectators have been left scratching their heads as they wait for things to come crashing down like they normally do. But I got bad news for the haters (of which there are many), the NFC BEAST is BACK, and it’s for real this time.

PHILLY IS BACK

There’s no disputing the Philadelphia Eagles are a damn wagon and Jalen Hurts is a legit MVP candidate. And by the looks of the remaining schedule for the birds, it doesn’t appear they’ll be tested until a week 12 clash with Green Bay or even a week 13 matchup with the 2021 AFC one seed Tennessee Titans. Even then, both of those games are at home in the city of brotherly love. And if the Phillies continue rattling off improbable wins and bring home a World Series in the meantime, it’s going to be hard to convince the Eagles they aren’t a team of destiny as well.

Through six games, the Eagles have knocked off the Vikings and Cardinals while also solidifying its role as top dog in the BEAST with wins over Washington and Dallas. The next two weeks see Philly (6-0) lining up against an always tough Pittsburgh squad before hitting the road to take on a reeling Houston Texans team. Like I stated above, if the Titans or Packers can’t take down this new NFL Goliath, week 16’s date between the Cowboys and Eagles on Christmas Eve may be the first and last chance for someone to dethrone the birds.

Giants Shocking the World

I think it’s safe to say no one saw the New York Giants becoming a feared opponent in 2022. The lethal combination of first-year head coach Brian Daboll, a rejuvenated Saquon Barkley and an overall weak schedule has helped propel the G-Men into a playoff caliber team at 6-1. The Giants have taken care of less-than-formidable foes like Carolina, Chicago and Jacksonville, but have also recorded surprise wins over Baltimore, Tennessee and Green Bay. All six victories are one score wins, but last anyone in New York checked a win’s a win! New York’s lone loss came at the hands of the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, which proves the inter-division matchups between Philly, NY and Dallas are sure to be must-see TV as the season progresses.

New York (6-1) will look to keep the ball rolling next week as they head cross-country to face off against a surging Geno Smith-led Seattle Seahawks team. Following a bye in week nine, the G-Men will have a solid shot at back-to-back wins as they host the Texans and Lions before matching up with Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

Dallas Hanging Around

It appeared the Dallas Cowboys were going to be in for another long, injury-riddled season when franchise quarterback Dak Prescott was sidelined for five weeks with a fractured thumb. But thanks to a superb 4-1 record led by backup QB Cooper Rush, America’s team managed to weather the storm and remain in the race for the top spot in the NFC East. With Cooper at the helm, the Cowboys relied heavily on its defense, and they showed out in more ways than one.

Second-year edge rusher Micah Parsons continues to dominate the line of scrimmage while the secondary hasn’t been shy of making game-winning plays. Parsons leads the team with seven sacks and eight tackles-for-loss while Trevon Diggs has hauled in three of Dallas’ seven interceptions. Much like their East counterparts, the Cowboys do not face much of a dreaded schedule this season as matchups against the weak AFC South and NFC North will help keep things interesting as these three teams vie for playoff spots down the stretch.

Dallas (5-2) will host Chicago next week, followed by its bye week, before hitting the road to take on Minnesota and Green Bay on the road. The results from these three games will help dictate what exactly this team is made of.

Washington is Still Washington

There just aren’t a lot of nice things to say about the Washington Commanders this season. No matter how bad a franchise wants Carson Wentz to be 2017 Carson Wentz again, it just isn’t going to happen. Wentz has been competent at QB, but a 10-6 TD/INT ratio partnered with a 60% completion rating has plagued the Commanders from keeping pace with their competition. Luckily, a Wentz injury had led to former XFL QB Taylor Heinicke taking over once more for Washington. Heinicke started off rocky against Green Bay on Sunday, falling behind 14-3 in the first half before rallying the troops to a 23-21 comeback win over Aaron Rodgers.

After dropping four straight, Washington finds itself at 3-4 and still very much in contention for a Wild Card spot if things continue to trend in the right direction. They’ll take on Indianapolis and Minnesota before getting a second crack at Hurts and the Eagles in week 10. Much like the Cowboys, we’ll know much more about this team once we hit the midway point of the regular season.

Postseason Baseball Returns in a Big Way

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in MLB

The 2022 MLB postseason field has been set.

Through the 162-game season, we experienced a plethora of unforgettable moments. Miggy’s 500th home run, Albert’s 700th, Judge’s 62nd and the Seattle Mariners snapping their 20-year postseason drought highlighted a star-studded summer of America’s pastime.

And while all of these feats are incredibly important and admirable in their own regard, there’s something about the magic that’s created in the month of October that knocks every other aspect of the regular season out of the ballpark.

The postseason landscape will look a little different this season, though, as the Wild Card round will feature a best-of-three series opposed to the winner-take-all format we’ve seen since 2012.

This year, six teams will make the playoffs from each league and will be seeded based on records following division winners. The top two division winners with the best records in each league will receive a bye to the Division Series. The third division winner will be given the three seed and will square off against an expanded field of wild card teams which will include the three teams with the next best records behind division winners. The 3 seed will host the 6 seed while the number 4 WC team will host WC team number 5.

With the 2022 postseason bracket set and a new, expanded format in place, there’s sure to be a variety of upsets and memories made as the field of 12 dukes it out on baseball’s biggest stage.

National League Wild Card Series

San Diego at New York (N)

With their 2-1 win over the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night, the Atlanta Braves clinched their fifth consecutive National League East division title, sending the season-long division leader New York Mets to the Gulag (Wild Card Series). There, the reeling Mets will host the up-and-up San Diego Padres. This is a series that many believe the lower seed can and will pull off the upset.

In my opinion, despite a recent downturn, the Mets should still be the favorite to move past the Wild Card series and face off against the NL-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers. New York boasts one of the best postseason starting rotations with Max Scherzer, Jacob DeGrom and Chris Bassitt. This trio will go up against stiff competition as the Padres roll out a rotation featuring Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Compared to the other Wild Card matchups between the Cardinals/Phillies, Rays/Guardians and Blue Jays/Mariners, this series’ pitching alone will be some of the best we will see in October.

Comparing the Mets and Padres lineups, I think there’s a fair point to be made on each side, but I’m taking the team with Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Jake Cronenworth over the likes of Pete Alonso, Francicso Lindor and Jeff McNeil.

And I know I just said the Mets should be the favorite, but I’m banking on Scherzer or DeGrom falling flat. Probably not my best call, but upsets happen all the time and I like my chances with this one.

PICK: San Diego in three games

Philadelphia at St. Louis

Well, you guessed it. There’s going to be some bias in this one.

The St. Louis Cardinals return to the Wild Card round in 2022 following their 2021 postseason exit on a soul-crushing walk-off home run from the Dodgers’ Chris Taylor.

This fall, the Cardinals hope to right their previous postseason struggles and ride the coattails of MVP candidates Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to another deep postseason run.

The Cardinals enter the Wild Card series as the three seed, hosting another reeling team in the Philadelphia Phillies. Philly stumbled down the stretch but was still able to clinch its first postseason berth since 2011 following an even bigger dumpster fire of a fall from the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Phillies won the season series against the Cardinals, 4-3, which includes taking 2-of-3 in Philly while outscoring the redbirds 15-9, and splitting a four-game set, 2-2. This time around, the Cardinals will enjoy home field advantage for all three games. This season the Cards were 53-28 at Busch Stadium, a stat they hope will play in their favor come Friday afternoon.

The Phillies, while struggling as of late, still boast a dangerous lineup headlined by NL home run leader Kyle Schwarber (46), Alec Bohm (.280 avg, 8-19 against STL) and a sluggish, but always lethal, Bryce Harper (.286/.364/.514). On the mound, the Phils will trot out a rotation of Zach Wheeler (12-7, 2.92), Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25) and Ranger Suarez (10-6, 3.37).

Lineup wise, I give the edge to the Cardinals. Although they’ve struggled recently, top of the order guys like Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan can get going in a hurry and following bats like those with the likes of Goldy, Arenado and a resurgent Pujols will strike fear in any pitching staff coming to Busch. The rotation comparison is closer than some may believe. Jordan Montgomery has been lights out as a Cardinal and Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright have proven time and time again they have what it takes to shine under the brightest lights. It’s going to be a dog fight. And I’m sure the birds will have me on the brink of a psychotic breakdown. But I wouldn’t have it any other way.

PICK: St. Louis is three games

American League Wild Card Series

Tampa Bay at Cleveland

I’m going to do my best to remove any bias I have as a part-time Tampa Bay Rays fan for this one. I’ve seen the Rays play roughly seven or eight times this season at the Trop, and let’s face it, they’re a fun team. They have one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, yet they continue to find each season’s diamond in the rough and turn them into a budding superstar. Guys like Randy Arozarena (miss you), Manuel Margot, Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow have helped fuel the Rays over the last few years while nearly making themselves household names in baseball circles across the country. This weekend, the Rays will square off against another fun team, the Cleveland Guardians.

The Guardians were kind of a shock winner of the AL Central, besting the Minnesota Twins and favorite Chicago White Sox to earn the three seed and clinch home field advantage in the Wild Card series. Cleveland has its own set of talent under longtime skipper Terry Francona. Amed Rosario Jose Ramirez and rookie Steven Kwan have ignited the Guardians offense and kept the flame lit long enough to hold off their reeling competition in the Central. Rosario (.283/.403/.715) and Ramirez (.280/.514/.869) have single-handedly kept things afloat in Cleveland, but guys like Kwan (.298/.400/.772 and second baseman Andres Gimenez (.297/.466/.837) have been pleasant surprises during an unexpected division race.

On the mound, the Guardians will be led by reliable work horse Shane Bieber. Bieber tossed 200 innings this season with a 2.88 ERA and a 13-8 record. Behind him, the lanky Tristan McKenzie (11-11, 2.96) and Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38) will look to follow in the veteran’s footsteps. These three will go up against another stout rotation in Tampa Bay’s McClanahan (12-8, 2.54), Glasnow (second start of the season) and former Guardian Corey Kluber (10-10, 4.34).

I believe these lineups matchup well and giving either side an advantage seems like a hasty move. But I will say this, if the Rays can get a dominant start from their All-Star McClanahan in game one, that may be enough to help power Glasnow and Kluber/Drew Rasmussen to the finish line in a three-game series.

PICK: Tampa Bay in three games

Seattle at Toronto

This may very well be the best series of the four.

The Seattle Mariners are riding the high of snapping their 20-year postseason drought while the Toronto Blue Jays look to return to a World Series contending team.

Toronto had a bit of an underwhelming year after entering the 2022 campaign as a top-3 favorite to win the World Series. Despite failing to challenge the Yankees aside from a late push for the AL East crown, the Blue Jays are armored with a lineup and starting rotation that is poised to turn heads across the league.

The Blue Jays offense went through a few slumps, but when a lead guy like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits 32 home runs and drives in 97 runs in a down season, I’d say you’re doing just fine. Bo Bichette was a driving force once again in 2022, hitting .290 with 24 homers and 93 RBIs while newcomers George Springer (25 HR, 76 RBIs) and Matt Chapman (27 HR, 76 RBIs) each held up their side of the bargain in the Toronto lineup. With four guys posting 800+ OPS and a catcher in Alejandro Kirk posting an eye-opening slash line of (.285/.415/.786), the Blue Jays are going to be a tough out this round and beyond.

Winning by platoon has been the Mariners’ mantra this season, and it will likely need to remain if they want to advance past the Wild Card round. Rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez has been worth the price of admission night in and night out, hitting .284 with 28 home runs and 75 RBIs. Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker were a huge hit when picked up from Cincinatti last season and have increased their production in 2022. The pair have combined for 45 homers and 140 RBIs this season. If the M’s can rattle the Blue Jay pitching, watch out.

The Blue Jays have the edge when it comes to three-man rotations as Alex Manoah (16-7, 2.24), Kevin Gausman (12-10, 3.35) and Jose Berrios (12-7, 5.23) hold a slight leg up on Seattle’s trio of Robbie Ray (12-12, 3.71), Luis Castillo (4-2, 3.17) and Logan Gilbert 13-6, 3.20). If the Mariners expect to keep things close and run this series to three games, they’re going to need to keep their bats hot and at least one dominant performance from Castillo or Ray.

PICK: Toronto in three games

I hate to be the guy that believes each team is good and can win it all, but with this year’s field, it’s hard to be convinced any one team is out of the race. I can see the Blue Jays making a run, the Rays making some noise, the Braves repeating or even the Cardinals winning the pennant (God please give this to me). That being said, I ought to make some predictions for the overall postseason picture.

NLDS/NLCS

Cardinals over the Braves in five games. Dodgers over the Padres in four games

Dodgers over Cardinals in six games.

ALDS/ALCS

Blue Jays over the Astros in five games. Rays over the Yankees in five games.

Blue Jays over the Rays in seven games.

World Series

Dodgers over the Blue Jays in six games.

Fuck the Dodgers.

Go Cards.

Redbirds Ready to Soar into October

Posted on by Robert Keith Jaco in MLB

The St. Louis Cardinals are a team of destiny. If you’ve followed baseball over the last 20 years or so, you’re probably saying “no shit, we’ve seen this before.” And this may be because of 2021’s 17-game winning streak that saw the Cards ride the coattails of veteran leftys J.A. Happ and Jon Lester to an improbable Wild Card run that ended in a Chris Taylor walk-off. Or it may be because St. Louis managed to rattle off Central division winners in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 following the exit of Albert Pujols after the 2011 World Series championship. But nonetheless, the 2022 Redbirds are hot, and they’ve got plenty of magic to deploy over the next month or so of baseball.

The Cardinals currently sit at 81-57 after splitting a four-game series with the MLB-worst Washington Nationals. And although you hate to see a team that’s hot fail to win a series against a faltering franchise like Washington, the upside to the Cardinals’ recent reign as a National League contender is ever-growing. The Birds on the Bat have rattled off an impressive second half, putting together a 31-13 record since the All-Star break with series sweeps over the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Arizona Diamondbacks and the Colorado Rockies. And sure, some of those team are bottom barrel, but what the Cards have accomplished with Trade Deadline pickups like Jordan Montgomery from the Yanks and Jose Quintana from Pittsburgh is nothing short of a miracle. Some may say its a miracle, others would say its St. Louis black magic.

Quintana has failed to allow more than two earned runs in seven starts with St. Louis, going 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA with the Cards going 6-1 in his seven starts in a St. Louis uniform. Montgomery has been even more dominant, going 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA while allowing just one home run with a 38/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And when it comes to offense, St. Louis continues to rake. Guys like 2B/SS Tommy Edman have heated up recently, going 9-22 with two homers and six RBIs in September, including a walk-off two-run double that capped off a five-run come-from-behind victory over Washington on Wednesday night.

Pair a hot bat like Edman’s with the MVP-caliber duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and the Cardinals might be the deadliest team come October. As the home stretch nears and teams begin to prepare for deep playoff runs, there is no reason to believe the Midwest boys in red are anywhere close to cooling down. The race for 12 in ’22 is alive and well, and I’m here for it.