Category: NBA

My philosophy is, and will always be… the best ability is profitability. 

We came SO close to a perfect night last night. Despite the small slate, we were able to make the right tails, pair them nicely, and walk away with a pair of wins. 

Even my own picks went 1/2 while sniffing a chance to push us to an undefeated evening. 

Nevertheless, we finished with a profitable night and have the chance to grow the bankroll with a plethora of Taco Tuesday promotions headed our way. 

Tonight, we’re switching things up as PrizePicks has so graciously dropped its first baseball taco on us for the World Baseball Classic championship game between the United State and Japan. 

For this play, we’re basically trusting three reliable workhorses that have continued to get on base and score runs this spring, whether it’s the WBC or a traditional Spring Training game. 

The Taco play is world phenom Shohei Ohtani o0.5 total bases. You hate to say there’s a freebie on the board… but this very well may be one.  

Ohtani has put together an absolutely INSANE World Baseball Classic. reaching base and hitting safely in all six of Team Japan’s games. Ohtani has recorded nine hits, nine walks, and scored nine runs in six games of action. All we need him to do tonight is stay the course and reach base ONE time. 

(And although Ohtani was a Taco play at o0.5 bases, I’d still take him at o1.5 bases with this track record of getting on base multiple times in multiple games.)

Along with the Taco, we’re going to play Mike Trout o1.5 bases with Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 bases.

Both Trout and Goldy have reached base in all five WBC games. Goldy and Trout have hit safely in 4/5 games, giving us consistent play of reaching base via hit. Goldy has gone deep, hit a double in another game and recorded two singles in another. Trout on the other hand has just one multi-hit game, but he did homer once, giving us o1.5 total bases in 2/5 games, compared to Goldy’s 3/5.

Although these aren’t clear cut indicators of a cash tonight, laying trust in the hands of the reigning N.L. MVP and a multi-A.L. MVP feels like an extremely sane and safe play to make. After all, this is for all the marbles. A chance to bring home a championship to your country. It’s hard to imagine either guy having a hard time getting up for a game like this.

In total, Goldschmidt has compiled six runs on six walks and five hits while Trout has recorded six hits, five walks, and four runs. To summarize… these guys are on-base MACHINES.

For our regularly programmed entertainment, we will be sticking to our normal routine of trying to pair tails with original plays and ending up on top. 

Last night we Trusted the Data, and Steven Cheah delivered with an all-time miracle cover as Stephen Curry hit a final-minute, meaningless three-point basket to cash the o4.5 3PT prop that we paired with Calling Our Shot’s R.J. Barrett u19.5 points play. 

Tonight, we’re tailing our guys again. And we’re also pairing a tail with a personal play. If I’ve learned anything in the game of PrizePicks, it’s this: You can have three good props, and three official plays, but if you can’t find a winning pair, you’re as good as broke. 

My initial plans were to take Nets shooting guard Mikal Bridges o24.5 points, a COS pick, but since it’s Taco Tuesday at PrizePicks, we’re getting Bridges down to 20.5 points, a mark too low not to take. He’s been a Taco the last two Tuesdays and cashed both times. So, back to the well we go.

And although I had plans to take one of my personal picks with Bridges, I wanted to get in on Cheah’s Jayson Tatum o5 assists prop, so we’re pairing these two together for $25. 

Cheah got Tatum at o4.5, but I couldn’t get that mark. Luckily, Tatum has recorded at least six or more assists in 6/L8 road games and 8/L12 overall. So I feel comfortable taking this at an even 5. 

ATLANTA HAWKS vs. DETROIT PISTONS

For my own personal play of the night, I’m going to back Trae Young at home against the Detroit Pistons. Now, I’m not sure if I’ll actually play this one on PrizePicks, I’m torn due to the possibility of a blowout, and in that case, I could fade my idea, so it may be a game-time decision. Regardless, I’m targeting Young’s Pts/Asts prop of 40.5. 

He’s cleared this mark in both road contests against Detroit, finishing with 41 and 48. At home, Young came up just short, finishing with 39 in 31 minutes of action in a 25-point blowout (130-105). 

Now that I’ve written this all out, my plan is to say fuck it and take the o40.5 Pts/Asts. Young is coming off one of his worst performances of the season, scoring just nine points and dishing out six assists in a 126-118 road loss at San Antonio. 

We’re going to bank on Trae to come out wheeling and dealing tonight at home. 

BOSTON CELTICS @ SACRAMENTO KINGS

Because we’ve got a WBC play and an NBA pair already set, I’m going to pair Trae Young’s o40.5 Pts/Asts prop with another tail, this time from the Prop Bet Guy at Action Network. This guy gave out the sneaky good Nick Richards play last night, and he makes a lot of good points for taking Jaylen Brown o26.5 points at Sacramento tonight.

The Kings play some of the worst defense, and we’re already on Tatum to facilitate, so let’s pair them together and see if we can’t nail both. This should be a high-scoring contest, so even if Tatum gets his, I’m sure the pair will be sharing the rock. 

So, this is what we got as of about 4:00 P.M. EST. Due to the possibility of 1-2 enticing Taco Tuesday plays dropping between now and tonight, I may throw together one more play. If so, I’ll try to add it below.

Let’s see if we can’t go back-to-back profitable nights!

It’s been a few weeks, but I’m back today with a few NBA props for tonight’s Monday night slate.

While I was away, I continued to make plays, sometimes combining tails from Twitter with my own research, and other times going out on a limb and seeing if I couldn’t rattle off a quick winner. Regardless of the recipe I’ve used, I’ve continued to see positive results since I started playing on Prize Picks just three weeks ago.

During this short span, I’ve won nearly 1k in wins while cashing out just over $350 with $210 to play with at the start of today.

At the time of putting this blog together, I have already locked in one 2-leg play for $25. This one is courtesy of Calling Our Shot and Barstool’s Steven Cheah (Trust the Data). Thanks to Austin at COS’s track record as well as the undeniable strength of Cheah’s data, we’ve put together a strong play with Curry o4.5 made 3’s and R.J. Barrett u19.5 points. Curry has seen an insane shooting volume against a Houston team that ranks the worst in opposing team’s 3 PT shooting %. I’m not going to lie, this play worries me slightly, but I’m trusting the data, it’s all you can do. As for the Barrett play, I was more than eager to ride this wagon as Barrett has underwhelmed for me in the points and rebounds department this season, so tailing an under just felt right.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES vs. NEW YORK KNICKS

For my own official plays, we’ll start with my favorite, which is Jalen Brunson o24.5 points at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Brunson is coming off a 24-point performance against the Denver Nuggets in his first game back from injury. In this game, Brunson shot 9-20 from the field including 2-5 from 3PT range in 32 minutes of action.

Tonight, we see Jalen in an incredibly favorable matchup against a poor defensive Timberwolves unit. Minnesota has not fared well against opposing point guards recently, giving up 28 points in their last game to Fred Van Vleet as well as an 88-point scoring combination from Demar Derozan and Zach Lavine in a double OT loss to Chicago. Jaylen Brown went for 35 points against MIN on 03/15 and Trae Young dropped a whopping 41 points in a 136-115 ATL home loss on 03/13.

Now I know a few of these scorers are shooting guards, but the point stands. Minnesota isn’t keen to playing defense on the perimeter. Brunson should have no problem exploiting this defense at home against another solid MSG crowd.

*Disclaimer – I fucked up and didn’t get my play in before Brunson’s line rose. Alas, I still feel comfortable with this one at 25 points even.

CHICAGO BULLS vs. PHILADEPLHIA 76ERS

My second play, and the one I have paired with Brunson’s o25 points, is James Harden o10.5 assists at home against the Chicago Bulls. Harden has hit this line in both of his matchups with Chicago this season (avg. 11 Asts) while also hitting this mark in 4/L8 overall games and 4/L8 home games.

This play is a bit dicey, as Harden often blows this prop out of the water or just narrowly misses it, but we’re banking on the Bulls to keep this game close. Chicago enters Monday night’s matchup with Philly coming off back-to-back win while sitting just 3.5 games back of the 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with just over 10 games to play. To tack on one last Harden stat, he’s only hit his points prop over in 2/L7 home games, so let’s bank on a night of facilitating the ball and finding the open man.

This is all I have at the moment. I’d like to find maybe one more angle to exploit before the games get going this evening, but it’s a small slate, so I may just hold off. If there are any last-minute plays, they’ll be added below before the 7 P.M. EST slate tips off.

I think Mike Breen said it best… BANG! BANG! BANG!!!

Not only do we remain profitable, we cashed a $100 dub, thanks to Mr. Dub himself, Klay Thompson.

After sweating through Kyrie’s final assist in crunch time following a quick three assists in the third quarter, we managed to cash Klay Thompson’s PAR o32.5 in the 3Q!

Thompson continued his hot streak, finishing with a 19 PTS, 11 REB and 4 AST performance in a 115-91 Warriors victory. Thankfully, Klay was able to pull down plenty of boards in the third quarter to help us cash before he sat out the fourth in a rout.

I stayed up a little too late watching the final game unfold, but I wouldn’t have it any other way when we’re cashing tickets!

Now of course, with the win comes the losses.

We went 1 for 2 on a last second play in which Tyrese Maxey picked up where he left off against Miami, clearing his PAR with ease, finishing with 29 points, 2 boards and 2 assists in the Sixers’ 133-126 loss at Dallas.

While Maxey handled business, Kawhi Leonard just couldn’t get any help from his teammates as he finished with an underwhelming goose egg (0) in the assist column. I tailed this play from Twitter, and I stand by it. 

With the increased pace of the Clippers since Westbrook’s arrival, paired with an opponent like Golden State, there ended up being plenty of assists opportunities, shots just didn’t fall. Oh well!

In our final play of the night, we tailed a Steven Cheah pick with Pascal Siakam’s o22.5 points, paired with Bradley Beal’s o22.5 points. With the Wizards facing Toronto, we unfortunately saw both players fall short. I had a hunch in Kuzma’s points, but stayed away. Whoops!

You can bet your bottom dollar we’ll be tailing Cheah again today. In Cheah We Trust.

Now that we’ve recapped, let’s dive into a few plays for another fun slate in the National Basketball Association’s Thursday night action.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES @ DENVER NUGGETS

I don’t necessarily love backing a Grizzlies player on the road given their abysmal 12-18 record away from FedEx Forum, but I did find a nice little trend we can latch onto.

Desmond Bane is coming off a 6-9 3-PT shooting night on Tuesday night at Houston. His three made line is set at o/u 2.5 made threes. Bane has hit this mark in 5 of his L6 road games and 5 of his L10 overall. 

I’m not in love with this play, but I’m willing to ride his hot shooting in Houston into a pivotal matchup between the 1 and 2 seeds in the Western Conference.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are looking to avenge last Saturday’s road loss to Memphis, this time at home.

Jokic’s AST prop is set at 10 even on Prize Picks. This pick is a bit dicey, but there’s data to back us up in taking this play.

Jokic has hit at least 10 assists in 8 of his L11 games, including 11 of his L13 home games dating back to Jan. 5th.

The only downside to taking this prop is the chance of Jokic stopping at 10 even, leading to a push.

In the 11 hits at home, Jokic has failed to go higher than 10 assists. Even with this knowledge, it still seems like a fair play to take him o10 ASTS in a battle against the 2 seeded Grizzlies. 

I’m going to pair these two plays with Ja Morant’s points and hope for the best. This feels like a good spot to back Ja against a stout Western Conference opponent.

In addition to this play, I’m also playing the twofer below. These picks are strictly Twitter tails, so do what you will with that information

That’s all I got for tonight, I haven’t had a proper chance to dive into all the teams in action. I’ll likely pair some tailing picks together with maybe one new hunch to see if I can’t add another W to the win column. 

There’s a solid slate of games again tomorrow night, and I plan on diving head first into some research once I get back from Orlando.

Until then, let’s remain profitable and keep increasing that bankroll. 

The most important thing for me after placing 2-3 plays is one thing: Remaining Profitable.

And if we can’t do that, let’s at least limit the damage to $20-$40 at the worst.

Now of course there comes the times when I get a little carried away and confident, and disaster strikes. And although I did add a last second play last night, it ended up being the winner we needed to stay profitable for the evening.

We picked up a win with a last second two-leg play that saw Donovan Mitchell absolutely CRUSH his Pts prop of 25.5 with a 44 point performance.

We paired Mitchell with Marvin Bagley III, and although he started off slow, we managed to just get over the 8.5 line with nine rebounds to cash a $30 winner. Big S/O to Capper Penguin (@__LordPenguin) for the tip on Bagley.

Unfortunately, we came up a bit short on our other two plays. I felt insanely good about Garland and Butler cashing for us, but a blowout kept us from seeing much of Jimmy down the stretch. Oh well, I still feel like it was the right play.

In the other loss, we took a gamble on a couple of guys and it bit us back. I had a hunch in yesterday’s write up that Brown’s unders might be a solid play, turns out I should’ve taken my own advice. He was cold and slow starting out, but ran out of time by only scoring 16 total points. 

Now that we’ve celebrated the win and dwelled on the losses, let’s see if we can throw together a few more solid picks and remain profitable tonight. 

Disclaimer: I am at Disney World today and tomorrow, so picks will be limited to 3-4 of my favorite picks/leans. I hope to be able to compile upwards of 5-7 a night, depending on the slate. 

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Golden State hosts the Clippers tonight at Chase Center with the winner taking sole possession of the fifth seed in the Western conference.

I love this spot for Klay Thompson to rebound from a poor shooting effort (8-21) against Portland on Tuesday night.

Klay just narrowly hit his o33.5 PAR prop, and tonight that line is set a bit lower at o/u 31.5.

Klay has hit the over on 32.5 PAR in three straight games, all of which have been at home. On top of that, he’s hit this number in 5 of his L7 home games dating back to Feb. 4th. 

Let’s ride the Thompson train again tonight.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS

We’re going back to the well on this pick as well, taking Kyrie Irving to continue his consistent streak of hitting o 5.5 assists. 

Irving has hit this mark in 5 of his 7 games with the Mavs. This includes 3 out of 4 home games.

Irving has recently commented about wanting to succeed and win with Dallas, so I don’t see any reason not to back him in another home performance against a Sixers team on a back-to-back, including three games in four nights.

Along with Kyrie, we’re gonna take Luka Doncic as well. 

He’s hit o 31.5 Pts in 3 of his L5 games, let’s see if he can’t turn it on and help add to Kyrie’s AST total.

That sets us up with a three-leg play that will net $100 if we can cash. In the words of the late, great Takeoff.. Let’s get it.

I’m pressed for time since I’m on vacation today and tomorrow, so my other play for the night, at this moment, is below. I’m tailing some guys I follow on Twitter, so my reasoning for taking these is based solely off of my trust in these guys and their track records. So here goes nothing!

I think the best way to preface this new segment is to talk about my newfound love for the Prize Picks app. Being a Florida resident, the betting game is nearly nonexistent for me as the normal Sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars and Barstool are all prohibited in the state. So, this basically leaves me with Daily Fantasy Sports apps to scratch the everlasting gambling itch that I get at the ass crack of dawn each morning.

Thanks to my co-worker Sergio, I got into Prize Picks last night, cashing my first two tickets thanks to some tails from a few trusted accounts on Twitter, as well as my own research.

I’ve enjoyed the research side of NBA prop betting so much that I’ve decided the best way to make this time spent studying productive is to share the research, thought process and eventual picks with my extremely niche and small audience. You gotta start somewhere, right?

Now obviously with any new venture, especially in the gambling space, there is going to be the inevitable “beginners’ luck” crowd. And to them I say, “yeah, you’re probably right.” I got bailed out with a HUGE Golden State comeback last night with Klay Thompson just narrowly hitting his PTs/Rebs/Asts line with a final three-minute drive to the rim. But if you think I’m going to apologize for a win, I got some badddddd news for you bucko (fucko).

From down 23.
To up 18.

Comeback DUB. pic.twitter.com/YcmMkwbfVf

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) March 1, 2023

Along with this two-leg win, I was also able to notch a win with a 2/3 finish in a Flex Play. A very cool feature that Prize Picks offers is the chance to add a little insurance to your plays. Now of course, with insurance comes the costs. I made my first play of the night a Flex Play, meaning even if I went 3/3, I was still taking a pay cut in winnings down to 2.25X instead of 3X. And in the event, I went 2/3, which I did because Klay didn’t hit his Pts prop of o26.5, I ended up with a 1.25X payout, which still netted me a $5 profit, so no harm no foul.

Now enough about last night, lets dive into tonight’s NBA slate. We’ve got some really good matchups with the Cavs visiting the Celtics, the Sixers finishing a Home/Away with the Heat in Miami and the NBA’s version of the “Subway Series” as Brooklyn heads to lower Manhattan to take on the red-hot New York Knicks at MSG.

It’s slightly early in the day as I write this, so there will be plays added to the card as the day progresses. But for now, here are a few props I’m keeping an eye on and looking to possibly play tonight.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ BOSTON CELTICS

Darius Garland is set at o/u 27.5 Pts/Asts @ Boston tonight. He has cleared this mark in 6 of his L10 games, missing the over with 26 and 27 in 2 of the 4 misses, so he’s consistent. He’s cleared o27.5 Pts/Asts in 8 of his L9 road games dating back to Jan. 18th. Cleveland is just 1-4 in its last 4 games but did rattle off seven straight before the All-Star break which included three road wins. 

Evan Mobley is set at o16.5 Pts tonight @ Boston. He has cleared this mark in 7 of his L11 games and has hit at least 17 Pts in 8 of his L11 road games dating back to Jan. 11th. On 10/28 @ Boston, Mobley had 19 and 10, and on 11/02 at home, he had 15 and 7 against them. Robert Williams is back for Boston, but I believe we can trust Mobley and Jarrett Allen to crash the boards and continue to get their own. Williams pulled down just 7 boards in the Celtics’ 109-94 loss to New York on Monday. 

Jaylen Brown is set at o24.5 Pts tonight against CLE. He’s cleared this mark in 11 of his L16 dating back to Jan 1st. including 5/8 home games. If you don’t like that, his Pts/Rebs is o/u 31.5. He’s only cleared his Pts/Rebs mark of 31.5 6 of his L16 and his Pts/Rebs/Asts in 7 of his L16. So there appears to be some value on the under for those two lines if you’d rather go that route. Something to think about. 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS @ MIAMI HEAT

Jimmy Butler is set at o/u 21.5 Pts tonight at home against PHI. He went for 23 against PHI on the road on Monday night, a game in which he went for 23 Pts, 11 Rebs, and 9 Asts. He’s cleared this scoring mark in 7 of his L10 games including 5/ L9 home games. Miami went just 4-6 in Feb. and currently sits 1.5 back of BKN for the sixth seed in the East. This is another big spot for Butler against his team as he looks to notch back-to-back wins and help Miami climb back up the ranks in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Tonight’s Plays (03/01)

I’m not sure what the structure will look like going forward, but I’d like to keep it close to the same night-in and night-out, but we’ll see.

For now, I’ll share the two plays I’m going with. The first is a three-legger that I earned by winning my first two plays on Prize Picks. Went out on a limb for a couple picks including returning to the well with Mika Bridges. Then, I paired him with Jaylen Brown’s points and anchored it down with my Evan Mobley pick.

For my second play, I kept things short and sweet and played my two favorite picks. Garland and Butler to continue their success. Let’s see if we can’t keep things rolling into Thursday and remain profitable.